How Ministry Leaders Think About the Future: Three Common Paradigms

We continue answering questions about futures thinking in the faith-based non-profit context.

Q: How do ministry leaders usually think about the future?

A: Ministry leaders typically view the future through three common paradigms: prediction, projection, and promotion.

Prediction relies on intuition and past experiences, guiding leaders to make educated guesses about what lies ahead. While valuable, relying solely on predictions can be limiting. Strategy, as Laurence Freedman explains, “must move from intuition to deliberation.” Foresight documents what are the drivers behind the changes we intuitively anticipate, helping leaders make sound decisions.  

Projection involves analyzing current trends and extrapolating them into the future. Although data-driven, this approach must recognize the complexities and uncertainties of tomorrow. Foresight affords leaders with what Peter Schwartz calls the “long view.” Foresight feeds vision, which informs the leader’s approach to strategy.  

Promotion entails setting ambitious “Moonshot” goals—the kind we set to stretch us but may not be truly possible. Leaders often set visionary goals like “Engage every person by [insert year],” which are useful for promotional reasons. They inspire action and commitment to a compelling vision; however, they must be grounded in realistic assessments of the future landscape to be effective.

Foresight takes the best of these ideas and makes them more useful. It empowers leaders to adopt a forward-thinking approach by developing scenarios that explore various possible futures. This process shifts the focus from mere prediction to a more nuanced understanding of what could unfold. Futures Thinking moves beyond simple projection by considering the probable future outcomes. By doing so, it helps leaders navigate the complexities and uncertainties of tomorrow with greater clarity. Strategic Foresight guides leaders in crafting preferred futures that are ambitious and grounded in realistic assessments of the future landscape.

In essence, foresight enables leaders to transcend traditional modes of thinking, allowing them to navigate future challenges and opportunities with confidence and agility.

Want to know more? Let’s get in touch through ForbesStrategies.com. Let’s discuss Incite Futures labs that can help your organization build a preferred future.